The American Samoa Government’s Chief Statistician Meleisea Vai Filiga has explained what the numbers indicate regarding the territory’s population trend.
The Department of Commerce estimated the mid year population for American Samoa as of July 1 to be 51,561.
Meleisea identified three main contributing factors: Fertility is declining, residents are continuing to move off island and an increase in deaths.
Meleisea sajd fewer and fewer babies are born here. What’s good is that we have much better healthcare programs/facilities controlling infant mortality. “It will be devastating to have low fertility and high infant mortality or IMR,” said Meleisea. “What worries us is the inability of local mothers to maintain our replacement fertility level.”
The Replacement Fertility Level is the level of fertility of women in every subsequent generation, assuming that women will only bear children that are enough to replace themselves and their partners.
It is the average number of children born to all women at child bearing ages 15 to 45 years.
Meleisea said for most countries the Replacement Fertility Rate is estimated at 2.1 children per woman. “Serious consequential assumption is that American Samoa is a dying race if fertility continues to drop.”
On outmigration, the chief statistician says more local residents are moving to the US mainland seeking better jobs, higher education, military services and better economic opportunities.
Recent patterns on the increased number of those seeking medical treatments off island is adding to the numbers. Young couples with children are moving out as well and most likely these are foreing born parents with locally born children.
Meanwhile local American Samoan residents outflow movement is hardly considered permanent migration as many still maintain land, housing, family properties/rights here.
Historical migration patterns in American Samoa had always been looked at as replacement migration where there were more people arriving and seeking permanent residency than those leaving for the mainland.
According to Meleisea in the past few years, this trend has been reversed due to a crackdown on overstayers and effective enforcement of residency requirements.
Meleisea also said an increase in the number of deaths adds to the declining population.
“Despite the fact that there are no known COVID-19 deaths in American Samoa, recent deaths according to the Crude Death Rates (deaths in proportional to the population) is up at 5 deaths per 1,000 population,” he explained. He said this number could be a lot higher if deaths of those residents sent off-island for medical treatment are included.
Summing up the numbers, the Chief Statistician said, “In all American Samoa cannot afford a long term population decline that will drastically impact local developments due to the lack of economic growth because of limited labor productions, social instability with high crimes due to abandonment of families and private properties, drug problems, decline in family values and the downfall of the fa’asamoa.”
