The American Samoa Department of Commerce has released the 2019 American Samoa Economic Forecast, which was published by the Statistics Division and features a baseline forecast and two alternative forecasts of American Samoa’s economy for 2018-2022.
This report offers an unprecedented look into economic trends in the territory, which is particularly useful to businesses, policymakers, and other individuals that may rely on local economic data.
The territory experienced modest economic expansion in 2014 and 2015, which was spurred in part by a large capital investment by Tri Marine International for the purchase and construction of facilities for the processing and packaging of locally harvested tuna.
The facility opened early 2016, but regional competition forced the company to permanently halt operations by the end of that same year.
Nominal GDP in American Samoa fell by 0.2% in 2016, although the contraction was closer to 2.5% when adjusted for inflation.
The cannery closure contributed to a spike in the territory’s unemployment rate in 2017, from 10.5% to 14.3%.
Both private and public sector consumption languished that year and the economy contracted by an estimated 3.7%.
The territory is expected to have experienced modest deflation in the same year.
As a result, Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) is projected to have contracted by a more subdued rate of 1.9% in 2017.
This contraction may have extended into 2018, if not for a devastating tropical storm that impacted much of American Samoa in February of that year.
By some estimates, Tropical Storm Gita caused as much as $186 million in direct and indirect damages across the territory.
American Samoa also benefited from recent strength in the broader US economy in 2018, driven primarily by strength in labor markets.
With relatively low domestic unemployment rates and consumer inflation, wage growth seems to have finally taken hold in the US during 2018, which appears to have translated to accelerated spending by both households and private businesses.
Real government consumption grew by its fastest rate in nearly a decade in 2018, even though nominal federal government receipts were hampered by a series of tax cuts.
US real GDP increased by an estimated 2.8% in 2018 and is predicted to continue to grow in each year of the forecast period through 2022.
Ongoing disaster relief funding is expected to contribute to modest consumer and government spending increases in American Samoa in 2018.
The GDP growth in the territory was calculated at 3.9% in 2018, or 0.7% when adjusted for inflation. Once the immediate fiscal effects of the tropical storm have diminished, so will much of the economic stimulus.
Accordingly, real GDP is forecast to decrease by 3.5% in 2019, 1.0% in 2020, 2.3% in 2021, an 2.0% in 2022.
This anticipated multi-year contraction is partially driven by higher inflation and is best viewed as a return to a more sustainable long-term trend, following multiple years of energy price decreases and stronger-than-usual capital investments.
The full 2019 American Samoa Economic Forecast report, which was produced by the American Samoa Department of Commerce’s Statistics Division, can be found at
http://doc.as.gov/american-samoa-economic-forecast-2019-2/
For more information on this matter, please contact Nathaniel Clayville by emailing nathaniel.clayville@doc.as.
